ethiofact.com

B. Solomon | February 25, 2008

The Ethiopian political struggle to create a democratic and just system is currently at rock bottom. The opposition political parties which are supposed to lead the people to a better future and peaceful transition are at war with each other. The attractive opportunity that led the opposition parties into temporary alliance is no more there. As a result they are doing what they had been doing for the last 40 years, which is tearing each other apart.

The public is back resigning into political apathy saying that they no more want to hear about the opposition and CUD in particular. Even those who gave their hard earned money, time and effort are anxious to know when their hard earned money is going to be invested in the struggle that they were promised sometimes back.

On the other hand, the TPLF-led government is not only strengthening its grip but also working hard to make it very difficult for the opposition forces to get any ground. Some of the recent enacted laws, like the one making political parties to question their supporters who drop 10 birr in to collection box whether they are Ethiopian, had connection with terrorist group or earned the money through disreputable means are reminders of this sad state.

As a show of power, the TPLF-led government had registered 1 out of 4 eligible adults as a candidate for local and Federal bye-election. If we take 2 adults in a family, then one can say almost every other home in the country would be part of the establishment and the power structure. This thing wasn’t heard of anywhere in the world; I have not heard it before at least. So, would this plan make the public respectful of the law of the authorities by becoming part of 1 among the 4 million army of decision-makers or turn into the worst chaos to manage or control?

It seems to me that everyone appears to be lost and have no clue what to do? What to do next is beyond any politicians’ capacity in the land at the moment. So some have proposed to all of us to sit on top of a hill to meditate or nod off.

Even those who inundated the media as pseudo-political analysts to write 10 pages a day after the May/05 election have run out of ink, papers and definitely idea. Most of them have already returned back to their routine life by making excuses and blaming others. Since a victory parade is not in sight, the chanting followers and cheer leaders too have to find something to do with their own life. No doubt the analysts and the cheer leaders would once again crush the gate as the opportunity arises but till then they will be silent.

Rather than solving the Ethiopian problem, the May 05 election has revealed the complexity of the Ethiopian political problem. We all have thought that the problem is the TPLF-led government but what has transpired after the election is the public as well as the opposition forces are part of the problem. All need to be reminded to abandon the old way of doing things to adopt a fresh strategy.

A future strategy that does not take cultural problems in the society and inherent undemocratic culture of the opposition parties in to the equation is doomed to fail. The public as well as the oppositions have to be the new frontier of the democratic struggle.

The lesson of the May 05 election is that democratic change cannot and will not come only from change of personalities in the power house. It starts with individuals changing their mode of thinking to accept that democracy is nothing but accepting others right to have opposing views.

This is what I have for today…..you may have your say.

By Addisu T | January 21, 2008

After my holiday observation was published on Ethiofact and Addis Fortune, I had many feedbacks on Ethiofact.com bulletin board. One of the feedbacks was from Mulu which I found it to be very informative. Mulu identified three causes of inflation to list out measures being taken by the government to tackle them:

• Fist, rise of crude oil price which is directly affecting price of imported goods as well as local products. Since import of petrol consumes up to 80 % Ethiopia’s export earning, impact of petrol on price of goods and services is significant. To combat inflation caused by petrol price, Mulu mentioned government’s plan to produce bio-fuel.
• Second, Mulu argues by saying “the seven million or so grain aid per year the country had secured in earlier years is no more in place. Instead the government is getting it in a form of money”. It is obvious that even though Ethiopia had good consecutive rainy seasons and better production, buying grains in the local market to distribute it where there is shortage is going to contribute to inflation.
• Third, recognising the excess money in the market, Mulu directed me to the government recent decision to increase saving interest rate and directive put in place to increase mandatory reserve of privet banks from 5 to 10%.

Overall, I am pleased by Mulu’s reply and measures being taken to reduce inflationary pressure. Having digested all the comments, I decided to write this follow up to stimulate discussion and find better ways of combating inflation without adversely affecting investments, growth and infrastructural development.

Though I fully support the measures being taken, I have some doubt about the effectiveness of some of the measures. In my view, Ethiopia’s economy is unique in many ways and it needs unique solutions to control inflation without slowing down investment and growth.

With this in mind, I would like to highlight some of the short-comings of the current measures to propose additional solutions.

First, bio-diesel is good but it is a long shot in the Ethiopian reality. Bio-diesel is nothing but cooking oil with lower viscosity to make injection and combustion easier. For example most diesel Engine cars can run with up to 80% of cooking oil blended with diesel fuel to assist ignition. Use of cooking oil to drive cars in UK is technically possible but illegal. It is illegal not because it is dangerous but it is considered as tax evasion since no fuel tax levy is paid on cooking oil. At a current petrol price, one can buy 2 or 3 litres of cooking oil for the price of one litre of diesel. As a result some diesel engine cars and trucks drivers get caught driving with cooking oil to face penalty.

When we come to Ethiopia, driving with cooking oil would be expensive since cooking oil is more expensive than diesel fuel. Cooking oil is above 15 birr compared to diesel price which is under 5 birr. So to make bio-diesel/ cooking oil/ competitive, Ethiopia need to produce surplus agricultural products at much cheaper cost.

Bio-diesel could have environmental benefit and can reduce dependence on import but its contribution in controlling inflation will be a long shot unless it is backed by surplus agricultural products. In the short term investing in blending system of sugar-cane based ethanol with petrol may help the transition to alternative fuel.

As it stands now the most effective way of controlling inflation is to increase productivity and efficiency than hoping to control inflation through bio-diesel production.

Second, controlling the money supply. Economic text books prescribe to control inflation by cutting public spending to slow down investment and raising interest rate to encourage saving. This process is effective in the developed world but in Ethiopia it may not work for the following reasons.

• In the developed world, people are paid through bank transactions and they do not carry cash. Low interest rate encourages consumers to use their credit card and spend more while higher interest rate reduces borrowing and spending. But in Ethiopia this is a new concept that needs to be introduced first before it can be used to control inflation. To make this incentive work, the government needs to modernise the banking system to make salary payment through banking rather than cash. A person who has no bank account would not bother to know whether the interest rate is up or down.
• In current Ethiopian reality, raising interest rate would only affect investors who want to set-up businesses and struggle to make profits. This would have adverse effect on business by weakening expansion of supply to exacerbate inflation. But this is not to say measures should not be taken to reduce excessive borrowing without viable business plan or exaggerated project cost to transfer away money to other account and declare bankruptcy later on. In fact the private and national banks need to set up a central database to prevent such fraudulent use of loan.
• Third, as I showed in the last article, the money is mainly coming from abroad and unless it is spent on infrastructure, it will either get wasted or donors will not see the need for giving it away. Unless projects are implemented, money stops coming to cause a bigger problem of no growth. Though I sound contradicting my own statement, threat of inflation to a country that has no basic infrastructure and economy that is predominantly dependent on subsistence farming wouldn’t be affected significantly if the control measures were targeting fixed income earners in the urban center. Inflation is a totally different issue when it comes to developed nations, who are dependent on competitive global market and domestic consumers spending.For example the US economy was supported by consumer spending based on appreciating housing prices in the last 7 years. Simply as the price of their house goes up, consumers felt prosperous to borrow and spend money on consumer goods. To curb this inflation the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rate about 18 times between 2004 and 2007 taking interest rate from 1% to 5.25%. This in effect increased mortgage repayment and reduced purchasing power of consumers to cause a drop in house price and spending on consumer goods.The negative effect is that as the housing price dropped, the banks began to tighten their lending criteria to lead to what is now called the “credit crunch”. These led to slowdown consumers’ spending to leave the global economy off its guards to push many companies into bankruptcy. So inflation in the West means, low consumer spending, which means loss of job, increment of dependency on government handout, reduction of government tax collected from businesses leading to higher income tax to support a large number of unemployed work forceWhen we come to Ethiopia, most of the concepts discussed above are non- existent. To start with the government does not take any responsibility for those who are unemployed or those who have no means to survive. Furthermore, very few have mortgage or access to bank credit facility. Hence, the developed world prescription of controlling inflation through public spending, interest rate or tax-setting may not be effective in Ethiopia

As shown above inflation is very much a dreaded thing in the West. To put things in perspective, inflationary target in EU and US is less than 3%. For example when inflation goes above 2% in the UK, the danger alarm goes on until measures are taken to curb inflation. But in our case, inflation is a different beast. Even after 19% inflation (according to Central Statistics Office) life appears to go on. But inflation of 19% in Europe or US would have caused a major crisis in the economy as well as welfare of citizens. Though the inflation in Ethiopia is too high, the silver lining is that the impact is not felt on the national level because wage earners are very minority in the country and more than 80% the population are still dependent on subsistence farming.

That is why Mulu and I are concerned by the impact of inflation on urban areas. Hence the measure needed is to focus on alleviating problems of fixed income earners in urban areas. So of all measures, increasing supplies of food items at lower price in urban centres coupled with improving productivity would be the most effective way of controlling inflation. Now the biggest question would be how that can be achieved?

Before that I would like to add other causes of inflation which Mulu missed.

The fourth source of inflation in Ethiopia is the recently introduced VAT. Value Added Tax had never been in the equation when merchants buy and sell goods. Now they have to mark up their profit first and add another 15% VAT to pass it to the government. So, technically, a product price could grow by 15% every time it passes hand from the whole seller to distributors or consumers. The question we need to ask now is that is it excessive tax? Can inflation drop by 5% if the government drops, say VAT by 5%.

The fifth and the biggest source of inflation in Ethiopia is inefficiency or waste. In simple manufacturing terms, price of a product is determined by cost involved in making it plus the waste (Price = Cost + waste). Everything, time, material, energy, labour, or other resources used to make a product plus the waste during making the product have to be recovered at the selling price. Hence, in Ethiopian situation, as inefficiency grows, the price also goes up.

While working in Ethiopia and still when I was on holiday weeks ago, the TV airtime was dominated by the news of increased production of cement, leather products, beer, wheat, grains, or animal products. The news come from the government owned farms, factories and the private sectors. But what does it mean in economic terms?

Increase in production means nothing unless the cost of making a product is reduced. It is this hidden inefficiency that has to be added to the cost of a product and service and make the customer pay for it. Of course, cost could be reduced by increasing production per hour to keep a unit price down, similar to Ford’s mass production model but that doesn’t mean a lot unless cost of making it is reduced. On the contrary, Toyota’s Total Production system is about eliminating waste to reduce cost of a product. Cost down can be achieved by elimination of waste of time, waste of unnecessary transportation, waste of processing, cost of holding stock, waste of movement, waste of overproduction, and waste of making defective products.

During my short stay in Addis Ababa and going to few offices, I was observing waste everywhere; waste of time and waste of resource. The system is not designed to make a smooth workflow even with all good intentions. It needs re-design to get better workflow.

For example, a government agency may have 8 storey building but arrangement of offices that are doing the work is random. You may go to 2nd floor to submit your application, then you will be told to go to 1st floor to buy a stamp, then you would be advised to take it to the 8th floor to get it signed. Then you would be told to go to the basement to photocopy and take the copy back to 2nd floor to get it officially stamped. And if you are lucky you may go one more round chasing paper until you are told to hand your file at the 4th floor, where your file will be stored. As a result, hundreds of customers and employees walk miles engaged in non value adding activity costing themselves and the country billions of birr.

Efficiency is not about shouting and making employees work until they sweat, it is about reducing the time and the distance between consecutive value adding activities (work). It is about making a workflow effortlessly from input to output at shortest possible time and resource.

As we know, the government is the biggest employer in the country and also the biggest waster of the national wealth. To recoup for this wastage, price of service always goes up year by year rather than going down. Despite expansion of electricity, telephone and other services, the unit price has been increasing to make the customer pay not only for the service they get but also for resources that the system wasted.

Rather than reducing cost through efficiency improvement, the government contributes the lion’s share of inflationary pressure by passing the cost of the waste to customers. It is through efficiency improvement that inflation could be brought down while accelerating development and competitiveness on global market.

Productivity and efficiency of the private sector is not different. Though I do not have the data, I was told huge investors like Midroc are not making profits. Hence, by definition they are not contributing to cut down the cost of products and services. They have to recoup their inefficiency by passing the cost to customers.

Just to add one more point, the other day I saw Ato Meles’ discussion with garment factory owners posted over the internet. One of the problems mentioned in the discussion was the difference between efficiency of Chinese workers and Ethiopians in the textile industry. It was reported that it will take 3 Ethiopian workers to make the same product that a single Chinese would produce in an hour. If 3 to 1 assessment is true, Ethiopia is not far behind from China and we should cheer up as an achievement. In my view, the difference could be in order of two digits, if one counts the non-value adding activities and the waste in the system. When Japan starts making cars, the efficiency gap between American carmakers and Japanese carmakers was up to 9 to 1. It is through elimination of waste Japan closed the gap, and defeated huge industries like Ford and General Motors.

By eliminating waste alone, Ethiopia can achieve double digit economic development while controlling inflation. That can be done not by shouting on workers but by improving the efficiency of the people at the top. It is by restructuring the top echelon of managers that the economy would be structured to make work flow effortlessly.

The first step is to make the top decision making position open for merit and competition. From a day I was born until today I have not seen a job advert asking for a position of CEO of telecommunication, Bank, factories or a plantation. Management is a science but in Ethiopia it is regarded as a reward for one’s loyalty and past service. Business is about cutting cost and delivering better product and service in competitive market. A business must not be an extension of control or reward for loyalty. It has to either swim or sink by its own performance.

Profit making national institutions must be run by people who come from open and competitive market. The role of the government should be to hire the most competent person and give him/her a target to meet or fire him/her when he/she fails to deliver. This undoubtedly would bring a cultural change of work and efficiency. It breaks the barrier between work and authority. What matters most will be the delivery of result than who has got the biggest and coolest office at the 8th floor!

In conclusion, the best way to control inflation without slowing down investment is to improve efficiency - to get more out of existing system and tackle the supply side of inflation.

The last source of inflation in Ethiopia is what the economist call: built-in inflation, induced by adaptive expectation. Due to shortage of goods and services in the last 40 years, price has been going up and people have never seen price going down. So people expect price to go up tomorrow and buy things today at full market price. For example people buy car because they know that they will sell it at profit in five year time. This adaptive expectation is difficult to control unless Ethiopia begins to produce surplus product to drive price of goods and services down. People expect price to go up to pay higher and higher prices. It also attracts speculative investors to fuel inflation. The housing sector is a good example.

In conclusion, every point we raised above contribute to inflation. Rather than trying to control inflation through monetary policy, which would slowdown investment, it would be better to upgrade the system to make it more efficient and get more out of existing manpower and resources. At the same time the government needs to increase supply of lower cost goods and services to the urban population who are going to be affected during this economic transition.

Hence,

1. The government needs to increase supply of goods and services to urban centres at lower cost. Though the text book does not recommend recent pay rise for low wage earners, it is the right decision.
2. Cap increase of price on utilities such as electricity, telephone and other services that are monopoly and not open to market competition.
3. Government must force government institutions to increase profit through efficiency improvement and cost cutting than price increase.
4. Re-examine whether VAT is put too high and too early.

By Bekele Habte, January 07, 2008

In this fifth part of my article, I shall discuss the reasons that led Kinijit to boycott Parliament, the failure of the leadership to give firm leadership and guidance to the public in the aftermath of the election dispute and the truthfulness of the widely believed assertion that Kinijit boycotted Parliament based on the public demand. Finally, I will conclude by assessing whether Kinijit is better off as a result of the boycott.

8. Boycotting Parliament, Addis Ababa and Regional seats:

i. What led Kinijit to boycott?

In part two of my article, during post-election negotiation with the TPLF-led regime, I tried to show how Dr Birhanu’s contempt for Kinijit council’s collective decision coupled with his incompetence in handling the negotiation left Kinijit worse off. It is to be remembered that the Election Board had provisionally certified 158 Parliamentary seats won by Kinijit. Thanks to Dr Birhanu’s solo action and incompetence, after the negotiation and the signing of the agreement to settle the disputed seats with the vote of NEB, EPRDF and CUD , Kinijit ended up with 109 Parliamentary seats only. The investigation process was concluded with a total loss of 49 Parliamentary seats and the ‘re-election’ of EPRDF heavy weights such as Ato Bereket Semon, Ato Aba Dula and Ato Junedin Sado !!

When Kinijit became certain that the negotiation to resolve election-related disputes were concluded in favour of EPRDF (with a net loss of 49 Parliamentary seats, the ‘re-election’ of EPRDF heavy weights and the ‘legitimization’ of the fraudulent election), Kinijit completely abandoned the fight to reclaim the stolen votes in favour of the establishment of a national unity government. This proposal was put forward by Dr Birhanu and Dr Beyene to EPRDF without any mandate from either Kinijit council or the executive what so ever. In other words, the most important issue of vote rigging was completely abandoned to be replaced with a demand for few ministerial positions. As expected, ‘the government of national unity’ was rejected by the TPLF-led government.

At this time, to the big relief of EPRDF, the three day sit-in-strike was already successfully aborted with the unfortunate intervention of Dr Birhanu backed by the US and British Ambassadors. Dr Birhanu, to the dismay of the electorate and Kinijit members, agreed to call off the strike against Kinijit council’s previous decision which called the strike in the first place. There wasn’t any decision on the matter by Kinijit executive as well. Put simply, Dr Birhanu’s agreement to call off the strike was against the decision of Kinijit Council and the executive. After the strike was called off, Kinijit had already lost the people’s confidence and the momentum. This in effect gave EPRDF a breathing space and was effectively planning to crush Kinijit and any other popular dissent ‘once and for all’.

Thus, it was after losing 49 Parliamentary seats, the ‘re-election’ of some of EPRDF heavy weights, the ‘legitimisation’ of the fraudulent election result and the rejection of Dr Birhanu’s proposal for a government of national unity by EPRDF, the whole idea of joining or boycotting Parliament, regional seats and Addis Ababa’s administration creped up and took a centre stage. Bear in mind the fact that the public was not consulted at all when all these major decisions were taken including CUD’s demand for securing ministerial positions for few by abandoning the respect for the people’s vote. However, when total defeat was in sight, the public was invited to share the blame. Then after, the issue of Parliament became a hot and pressing topic culminating with eight preconditions to join Parliament.

ii. Who should have decided the matter?

Leaders are essentially elected to lead. Leaders should not expect to be led by the people. Leaders should detach themselves from emotion, carefully reflect on the crisis at hand and if needs be, come to a decision however unpopular it may be to the public.

I believe, when members elect their leaders, it effectively means giving the elected leaders the mandate to lead the party and to negotiate on behalf of members with any other third party on any matter. Leaders are essentially elected to lead. Leaders should not expect to be led by the people. Leaders should detach themselves from emotion, carefully reflect on the crisis at hand and if needs be, come to a decision however unpopular it may be to the public. When leaders are tempted to seek leadership from the public so as to share the blame and avoid a difficult decision, then it is difficult to talk about the existence of leadership in the first place. Particularly the importance of a seasoned leadership is paramount in times of crisis. More than any other time, leaders are tested and needed to give guidance and firm leadership in difficult times.

Of course, although it may not be necessary to bring every trivial matter to the attention of the public, it may be a good practice on the part of leaders to consult the public as and when necessary before making any big decision. Nevertheless, the final decision still should be left to the leaders after taking into consideration the people’s feedback except on certain matters which are stated otherwise in a party’s bye-law.

I take my hat off to Engineer Hailu and Ato Lidetu who all along argued the importance of the decision to be made by the leadership rather than the public. I believe they were dead right and it showed Engineer Hailu’s valuable experience in leadership and Ato Lidetu’s natural instinct to see where Kinijit was heading. It is unfortunate that Engineer Hailu’s and Ato Lidetu’s persuasion and plea fall on deaf ears.

I say so because, first, leaders are there to lead. As simple as that. Second, only Kinijit leaders were better placed to assess and scrutinise the whole matter (such as Kinijit’s strengths and weakness, EPRDF’s strengths and weaknesses, the West’s influence, the public’s mood and determination, etc.) and come to an informed decision. The matter should have been looked at carefully from different angels. It was a complicated matter needing a cool, sober, reflective and wise decision.

Suffice to say, it was a deadly mistake to agree to leave the decision to the people. It seems to me that the leadership were not fully aware of the implications of what they were inviting. Unlike the leadership, apart from rightly out pouring their anger, disgust and emotion loudly and visibly, the public did not have inside information and the necessary expertise to come to an informed decision.

I think, it is fitting to cite Dr Birhanu’s private argument here as an informed decision. Dr Birhanu used to argue in private, since no lobbying work was done on the security force, the police and the army, it was not known which side they would be taking. In addition, Dr Birhanu used to argue that TPLF was not prepared to hand over power at all. Thus, Dr Birhanu privately argued the wisdom of joining Parliament at the time and to carry on engaging the military and security immediately afterwards with a view to get rid of TPLF-led regime in the next Parliamentary election. I could not agree more with Dr Birhanu.

But, surprise to everyone, Dr Birhanu confessed in his book that he decided not to join Parliament the morning after Dr Yacob’s and Engineer Gezachew’s harassment by the TPLF security after Meskel dinner invitation at his home. Such a snap decision on the issue that could have a lasting impact on the life of 70 million people is very amateurish, to say the least.

Lastly, I would like to mention a contradiction on the actions of the leadership. On one hand, the leadership was trying to avoid making the difficult decision by pushing it to the public and on the other hand, Dr Birhanu was distancing himself and his party (Kestedamena) from the people’s struggle at that difficult and trying time. Allow me to elaborate my point further. When the public took the initiative to organise peaceful dissent in the absence of any semblance of leadership from Kinijit, Dr Birhanu was the first to come out to the open and condemn it by issuing a press release in Oct/05 in the name of Kestedamena and signed by Dr Birhanu. At least a sympathy should have been afforded to the public rather than out right condemnation.

Why Dr Birhanu felt necessary to expressly abandon the public at the time, it is beyond me. Please click this pdf link to read the press release. At the time, there was no a party called Kestedamena as the four constituent parties have completely merged in Sept/05. Why Dr Birhanu issued this press release with out any consultation with the other Kinijit leaders and why he evaded suspension from Kinijit as it happened to Ato Mushe Semu who was suspended for issuing a press release in the name of UEDP-Medhin after a complete merge, it is still a mystery to me. I believe laws are meant to be applied evenly including to the leadership.

iii. Did we get our facts right?

Is it true to say that Kinijit boycotted taking Parliamentary seats, regional seats and Addis Ababa administration because the public wanted it so? How far is this assertion a reality or hearsay? I think it is high time to go through this very assertion made by some people including some Kinijit leadership to verify its validity. The discussion of either joining or boycotting Parliament was conducted in four separate and distinct categories based on Kinijit leadership’s decision. They were:

A. Discussion at Ibex Hotel with prominent individuals in Aug/05: Kinijit conducted the discussion with the invited prominent individuals at Ibex Hotel at the beginning of Aug/05. No single individual had advised Kinijit to boycott Parliament. All those who got the chance to speak strongly advised Kinijit to join Parliament including prominent lawyers. In fact, Kinijit was reminded by the participants to respect the people’s vote by joining Parliament and carrying on the struggle.

B. Discussion at Ibex Hotel with Civic Organisations and the Free Press in Aug/05: Kinijit conducted the discussion with the invited civic organisation and the free press representatives at Ibex Hotel at the beginning of Aug/05; three days after the discussion with prominent individuals. Most of the people who got the chance to speak had advised Kinijit to immediately decide on the matter and join Parliament. Of course, two individuals had reminded Kinijit the futility of joining Parliament. Thus, Kinijit was advised by a qualified majority of the civic organisations and the free press representatives to join Parliament.

C. Discussion among Kinijit leadership, zone representatives and Parliament and regional government electees at Global Hotel in Aug/05: Kinijit conducted discussion among the leadership, zone representatives, parliament and regional government electees at Global Hotel in Aug/05. Due to the shear volume of the participants, they were divided into nine sub groups and each sub group, headed by the leadership, conducted a lengthy discussion on the matter.

After their thorough discussion, each sub group returned their decision in writing to the house. Six of the sub groups decided to join Parliament immediately. Two of the sub groups decided to join Parliament near to the opening of Parliament. One sub group failed to make a decision either to join Parliament or boycott Parliament. Thus, eight out of the nine sub groups decided to join Parliament while one group failed to make a decision.

D. Discussion with the ‘electorate’: Discussions were held with the public in Addis Ababa in certain Woredas and in two places outside Addis. The public meeting was openly advertised and open to any body. There was no any means to verify as to who attended those meetings. There was no way to know how many of the attendees actually elected Kinijit, how many of them were TPLF agents and how many of them did not vote for Kinijit.

In any case, if we take 3000 on the average as the number of attendees in each meeting hall and if we say there were a maximum of 10 such public meetings, the total number of people who participated on the discussion would be 30, 000 people. Let us assume all these people as electing Kinijit. First, Kinijit is elected by several millions (up to 20 millions); thus, these few attendees could not sensibly represent the electorate. Even Engineer Gezachew alone is elected by more than 50, 000 people! Second, literally all of the meetings were held in Addis Ababa; thus, these few attendees in Addis Ababa could not reasonably speak on behalf of the electorate outside Addis Ababa. Third, even on these few public meetings, most of the people did not tell Kinijit to boycott Parliament. What most people said was that they would stand by the leaders what ever decision they take!

As argued above, neither the majority of the people nor its members ordered Kinijit to boycott Parliament, the regional government and Addis Ababa administration. Put simply, boycotting Parliament, regional governments and Addis Ababa was not the decision of Kinijit Council, the executive and the majority of the electorate. It may be the choice of very few people and the wish of the TPLF-led government. This is the fact. The argument that Kinijit boycotted Parliament based on the people’s decision can not be correct, to say the least. It is a myth which was concocted to cover up the leadership’s failure by shifting the blame to the public. I challenge any body to prove me wrong by putting forward any factual evidence!!

iv. Was it a right move to boycott?

Fully aware of the nature of TPLF-led regime, we all predicted the election not to be free and fair. We were aware of TPLF’s intent and capacity to cheat and rig the election. We rightly predicted TPLF to detain, kill, torture, hold incommunicado, etc. We never expected equal access to the public media. We never expected the security, the police, the military and the Election Board to be neutral. In short, no member of the opposition expected a level field as you can only expect a level field in a democracy. Needless to say, there is no any semblance of democracy in the TPLF-led government.

Yet, Kinijit leadership made its intent clear to participate in the May/05 election with out any preconditions by outlining election as the highest manifestation of a peaceful struggle. The leadership argued the importance of using the election process to reach to the people right across Ethiopia and rally the public behind them. In spite of the expected killing, torture, harassment, detention, etc, we were told by Kinijit leaders that they would nevertheless participate so as to get the maximum all rounded advantage during the election process since the establishment of democracy is a process. Hence, in this process, the leadership unambiguously explained us the necessary sacrifice including death as Kinijit is pursuing a peaceful struggle. They also predicted to win some seats across the country in spite of the expected election rigging. So it was with this mindset that Kinijit participated the election. I am not sure if the new comers to the leadership (mostly from Kestedamena) who joined the struggle in the 11th hours were thinking differently by missing the inherent nature of the TPLF-led government!!

If the above premise is correct, all the killings, torture, detentions, disappearances, harassments, etc. were expected. Election rigging and vote stealing were also rightly predicted. I argue, there was nothing unpredicted happening. So, the million dollar question is then why boycott Parliament, regional government and Addis Ababa administration?

If there is a free and fair election, then there is democracy and in democracy, there is no need to struggle. Hence, it seems to me that we may have to pass through few difficult and unfair elections before finally seeing a free and fair election. I am afraid, even if TPLF-led regime is replaced by the opposition, it would be wrong to expect an out right free and fair election. It just does not work like that. It will take time.

In conclusion, as shown above, the assertion that the people demanded Kinijit not to join Parliament is not true and it seems ‘Ye-Arada’ politica to blame the public for the disastrous strategic decision of Kinijit. Kinijit was voted by at least 20 million people and anyone who understands democracy and gives respect to the people’s vote would not dare to over turn this mandate by conducting public meetings with a total attendance of less than 30000 people!

Moreover, contrary to what has been told to the public, the consultation with notable individuals, civic organisation representatives, free press representatives, higher party officials and activists ended up advising Kinijit to join Parliament. As the establishment of democracy under peaceful struggle is a process, it could have been much more better for Kinijit to take what ever it won and at the same time continue the struggle to get the job finished rather than boycotting Parliament or throwing away the hard won victory.

By Addisu T | January 02, 2008

A traveller Diary:-Part II

In my first article, I wrote my impression of the current facelift of Addis Ababa. While highlighting the capital’s encouraging major expansion, I also addressed some of its short comings to make it a comfortable place to live. Though it sounds a luxury at the moment, I believe leaving land for future development of parks, sport and other recreational facilities can make the capital a comfortable place to live.

As I promised in my previous article, I would try to address the economic reality of the country in this article. My assessment of the political reality will follow soon.

The reason I am writing my positive impressions is not to make the current regime brag about it and become complacent but to emphasise the importance of hard work to win the hearts and minds of the people. When we discuss economic development in Ethiopia, we should always keep in mind that 75% the population live at least a day walk from main roads; only less than 6% of the population has access to electricity and about 3 in every 1000 people have access to telephone (UN human development index). So it is to highlight the mammoth task waiting everyone to shade some light to the people, who own the country and rightly deserve access to civilization.

It is also to remind the opposition to recognise the changes on the ground and prepare themselves accordingly by formulating a better strategy based on what is already done.

THE ECONOMY

There are lots of indications that the economy and infrastructure of the country is going through major changes. You see changes in various ways. A journey that took you many hours to reach to your destination previously appears to have shortened because of upgraded roads in the last few years. Particularly the works in areas such as hydro-electric power, road construction and communication is noticeable and the impact on the development would be substantial.

The roads from the capital to the West, East, South and North are well built making the countryside open for business, investment and development. Access to mobile phone has increased significantly and users of mobile phones are no more localised in the capital but also go as far as the lowland into the desert. This too is bound to change the mindset as well as opening the vast untapped countryside for investment and development.

Like in the past, people are not yet prepared to work far from the capital city. Upon graduation, I myself had done everything possible not to go far away from the capital particularly to the north of Ethiopia due to the conflict that had been going on and lack of basic infrastructures. Now there is a possibility that the labour force and the capital may start moving outside the capital looking for opportunity, investment or employment if life outside Addis Ababa becomes a little bit bearable.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Above all the investment in hydro-electric power is the most strategic development that the country has taken. So far it has developed less than 2% of its potential and less than 6% of the population has access to electricity. Although Ethiopia is a source of major rivers, the development of these rivers has been suppressed for long-time due to lack of money and geopolitical influences. In a paradoxical way, the government in power seems to have the best of both worlds; it has a backing from China to Western countries. The West’s finance as well as the East’s cheap labour and technology have now met in Ethiopia. You see large number of Chinese driving around or walking on the streets which signifies their presence in large number of infrastructure projects. The government is also a kind of lucky that those hydro-electric power projects are not opposed by down-stream countries. In fact power lines to Sudan and Djibouti is being installed to export electricity.

When I say large number of infrastructure projects, I mean about the 4 hydro-electric dams (costing more than 20 billion birr), the thousands of kilometres of roads, the Awash dam for sugar plantation, the mobile network coverage and the new universities in all of the regions which required many billions of birr investment.

When I grasp the full extent, I began to ask where the money is coming from and how the government is managing to fund all these multi-billion dollar projects. These projects such as dams, power stations, roads, communication facilities and universities are expensive. The export of the country has remained almost the same except for few promising shifts towards horticulture. When I dig deeper, I realised that the trade balance has gone over the roof. For example according to Central Statistics Office data, export was about 7 billion birr in 2004/05 fiscal year compared to 32 billion birr worth of import[i]. The trade deficit was more than 25 billion birr and growing year by year.

Since money does not grow on trees, I began to ask everyone I had a chance to engage in conversation as to where the money is coming from to fund all these infrastructure projects but I didn’t get the full picture until I began to Google for Central Statistics Office, UN human development index and IMF publications. What I learnt is this: though the country has a trade deficit about 4 times of its export, money has been flowing into the country from donors’ courtiers as well as from Ethiopians in the Diaspora. I believe the internal as well as external sources of income of the country have grown dramatically in the last 10 years.

INTERNAL RESOURCE:

First, the government is enjoying a windfall of income from the recently introduced Value Added Tax (VAT) [ii]of 15% from every transaction. Ethiopia never had VAT until it was introduced most likely under IMF pressure, 3 or 4 years ago; thus, when you have a cup of coffee or a piece of cake at the local coffee house, you are putting 15% value of the coffee into the government’s pocket. That must have beefed up the government’s coffer significantly.

Second, land prices have skyrocketed because the government is the only landlord in the country and has a tight control over the supply. Price of land is not controlled by demand and supply of market economy. Tight control of the land supply appears to generate a windfall for the treasurer. Now every inch of the land in the capital and major cities has been sold at a premium rate (no one can import cheep land from china :-).

Looking the number of constructions going around and the more than 200 Wannabe real estate developers, land is in big demand and generating a fortune for the treasurer. When I checked further, the Central Statistics Office does not measure or publish the price index of lands and houses but one can easily say land and property prices have doubled in less than 5 years.

On top of these two new found windfalls, the traditional Ethiopian government tax base is still there. In fact some of the tariffs on cars and other “luxury” goods have gone up. More than any other previous governments, I can say, the present government goes extra mile to collect its tax.

EXTERNAL SOURCE

The external resource base of the country has gone up dramatically. As shown in Central Statistics Office [iii]data, the vast majority of government expense is covered through external assistance and borrowing. In the last 16 years, Ethiopia has been enjoying unprecedented amount of assistances (approximately 1.8 billion dollar/annum), debt cancellation and loans. According to the same CSO data, more than half of the government spending is coming from outside the country through assistance and loans. As, of course, the American saying goes - “there is no free meal” and how far it will go and why Ethiopia is enjoying unprecedented amount of assistance is something that I would leave for experts to analyse. But there is no doubt money is not a problem so far and it is flowing in from the West as well as the East. In the long run, dependence over external assistance is undesirable but there is no doubt external assistance can jumpstart the economy as it happened in Europe and Asia after the Second World War.

The other major source of government revenue is Diaspora Ethiopians. The official statistics of remittance from Ethiopians living abroad is above 500 million dollars per annum but some say unofficial remittance that is going through private hands could be significantly higher.

These are the two major new sources of extra-money that is being pumped into the country, which is good. Of course, about 400 million dollars could be generated from the current favourable coffee price but the faster growing export is Chat and flowers, which account around 90 and 60 million dollars per annum respectively.

Fortunately there was good rain in the last 4 years so the farmers are in a better position to feed themselves. This is the biggest blessing of God. According to UN development index report “A single draught event in a 12-year period will lower GDP by 7%–10% and increase poverty by 12%–14%. Economic modelling by the World Bank suggests that the inability to mitigate the effects of rainfall variability reduces Ethiopia’s potential for economic growth by a third—with obvious consequences for reducing poverty”[iv]

So the contribution of God to the national economy cannot be underestimated. In simple words, when the cycle of draught is pushed farther apart, the economy and the country will be in a better state.

Therefore, though the income from export hasn’t gone up, the money coming from Diaspora and donors’ country appears to be the fuel behind the high level of spending on infrastructures.

In conclusion one can say a relative absence of war, four good consecutive rainy seasons, better commodity price, high level of inward investment in areas of flower, construction and mining, money remittance from Diaspora and foreign assistances coupled with land sales and new windfall from VAT have put the current government in a better position than the previous one. These are the facts that cannot be disputed. However, politicians can argue whether this government got it lucky or earned it through sound planning could spark endless arguments and I do not want to be part of it.

Of course some short-sighted politicians may dismiss it as propaganda but I am a firm believer that knowledge is power. Understanding what is actually going in Ethiopia is beneficial for everyone, particularly to the opposition political forces in the Diaspora. It is on these facts that the political programme and strategies need to be formulated, not on assumptions, denials or hearsays. It is easier to dismiss everything as propaganda but denial of the government’s strength and good fortunes that the government is enjoying would only lead to a misguided political strategy that will fail again.

Though these capital injections are very good to stimulate the economy, create job opportunities and expand the infrastructure for further development, the gap between the Haves and Have-nots is increasing at alarming rate. According to UNR-2006, “23% of the population live below 1 dollar a day and 77% below 2 dollars a day”.

Price of goods and services have gone through the roof. Like the highly publicised price of Berbere/chillie, the cost of everything has gone up at least 5 to 7 times. When I left the country, one could have excellent meal of Kitfo for 5 birr but now it costs 35 birr at the same place I used to eat. Egg used to be 5 a birr, now it is about 1 a birr or 3 for 2 birr. Everything else is expensive and anything below 1 birr has no real value. The most surprising thing is those places which sell a meal above 35 birr are busy and sometime there are no enough seats in those restaurants. This is a worrying development since it a sign of a false economy since the locals cannot afford it. The spending is sustained through a large sum of money that is being transferred from government banks to private “investors” and the money coming from third country through remittance and donation.

On the side of have-nots, there are civil servants, pensioners and employees of private companies who earn as low as 150 to 200 birr per month with families to feed. So there is a kind of underlying imbalance in the economy which is worrying. Like global “sup-prime crunch” the economy may face a big difficulty if one of the three sources of cash from abroad dries.

INFLATION

Before I left Ethiopia, the main problem was supply. You would go to a bakery at 9 AM and there was no Bread left. But now you can go to a shop at 9 pm and the shops are full of the stuffs you need. So the price rise has nothing to do with demand and supply except that of land which is in the government’s hand. As I look around, there is no shortage of supply of anything. Vegetables, grains and other food items are full on shops’ shelves but at a price at least 5 times more expensive than what they were few years back. These are the most worrying developments for low income families in the country. They can only window-shop but they cannot afford to buy. It was the farmers who used to be struggling to feed themselves when there is shortage of rainfall but now urban dwellers are getting in a position where they cannot feed themselves twice a day.

From this observation, one can conclude that the value of birr has been devalued significantly as the market opens itself for inflow of currencies and goods from Diaspora and donor countries. 1 dollar was close to 9.50 birr and a pound heading to 19.50 birr a month ago. So everything may be cheaper for someone who is coming from abroad and for families who have children abroad but for the people who are earning their income in birr, life has become an uphill struggle even after 100% pay rise for pensioners, teachers, doctors etc.

According to the official Central Statistics Office, consumer food index annual inflation is 19.2% on the country level and 26.6% in Addis Ababa.

“… the 19.2 percent increase in the country level Food index was observed due to a rise in the indices of the regions namely: Addis Ababa 26.6 percent, Afar 23.9 percent, Amhara 21.9 percent, Benishangul Gumuz 17.6 percent, Dire Dawa 19.2 percent, Gambela 18.8 percent, Harari 19.5 percent, Oromia 18.8 percent, SNNP 15.2 percent, Somali 2.5 percent and Tigray 19.4 Percent”[v]

Unless price increase is not controlled through increasing supply, improving productivity coupled with tight fiscal policies, inflation might eat the economic activities. Particularly large transfer of money from government to the private sector through loan has created a false sense of “paper millionaires”, since they do not ask themselves how much they owe the banks. Since Ethiopia never had an economic boom, the term bust is not yet known. The mini-boom we are seeing today could lead to mini bust unless some of the corrective measures are taken timely.

[i] http://www.csa.gov.et/text_files/national%20statistics%
202006/external_trade.pdf

[ii] http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=17018.0

[iii] http://www.csa.gov.et/text_files/national%20statistics%
202006/Publicf.pdf

[iv] http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/hdr06-complete.pdf

[v] http://www.csa.gov.et/text_files/CPI_docs/CPI-Jul_07.pdf

By Bekele Habte, December 25, 2007

In this fourth part of my article, I shall discuss the fundamental flaws of AFD (Alliance for Freedom & Democracy) from Pan-Ethiopians point of view as opposed to that of the separatist movements. I shall also discuss how KIL’s naïve involvement with AFD ended up resuscitating ethnic politics to the detriment of the revival of Ethiopian unity.

7. AFD, the final straw which broke the back of Kinijit Diaspora:

i. Was/is AFD a necessity?

In principle, an all-inclusive and the widest possible opposition alliance against the incumbent TPLF regime is a necessity. Since no single party alone is currently capable of challenging TPLF and its coalition (EPRDF), opposition political parties do desperately need to pull their meager resources together. The opposition forces uncoordinated and scattered struggle is not going to get us anywhere. There can be no illusion about it. In light of this, I think, it is rationally wrong to oppose the formation of AFD or any other alliance for that matter.

In addition, for a lasting peace, democracy and stability in Ethiopia, separatist movements like OLF, ONLF and SLF can not be ignored and sidelined from the mainstream of Ethiopian politics any longer. From their peripheral position, they need to be encouraged to come to the centre ground of Ethiopian body politic. It is wise to accept their place and role in Ethiopian politics and start negotiating with them as soon as it is practically possible. Whether we like it or not, they have their own constituencies and as such are forces to reckon with. We can not indefinitely postpone the problem. We need to face the problem sooner than later. Put simply, any would-be lasting solution to the many and various Ethiopia’s pressing problems should take into account the role of the separatist movements and genuinely try to address their concerns and insecurities squarely and fairly.

However, in simple terms, AFD is essentially an agreement between Pan-Ethiopian forces and separatist movements i.e. those who have an unwavering stand on Ethiopian unity and sovereignty, and those who utmost reject or at least question the very existence of the Ethiopian nation in the first place. If this is the case, one would not only expect the agreement to be mutually beneficial to all concerned parties but also to reflect the actual and perceived strengths of the parties to the deal.

For the reasons which would be addressed below, I argue, the agreement in its present form and composition was far from being fair and sound to Pan-Ethiopian forces. The balance greatly tipped in favour of the separatist movements to the detriment of Pan-Ethiopian forces, if not a total surrender of Ethiopian unity by the Pan-Ethiopian forces. That is why I oppose not the formation of AFD as such but the unfair, unjust and unequal deal that totally goes against the desire of the Ethiopian people to create a strong and united country.

ii. The Basic flaws of AFD from Kinijit’s perspective:

First, AFD’s Statutes, Chapter I, Article 4 (a), reads: ‘The documents of the Alliance shall be in English. Certified translations can be made in other languages.’ What is wrong using Amharic with its unique Ethiopian alphabet? Is it because the secessionist movements consider Ethiopia as a ‘coloniser’ and Amharic as the language of ‘Amhara colonisers’? If there is hatred towards Amharic language, why not use one of Ethiopian languages, say Oromigna, Guragigna, Tigrigna, etc as the language of AFD?

Unlike Kinijit, for secessionist parties like OLF, demolishing and dismantling all the common ties, values, cultures and threads of Ethiopian people is very fundamental to promote their secessionist policy. It is perfectly in line with the very objective of separatist movements to carefully single out and magnify our differences while at the same time downplaying or even branding our common identities as myths or fabrications. Thus, using English as the language of AFD instead of indigenous languages cannot be in the best interest of Kinijit in light of its values that were promised to the Ethiopian people before the election.

Second, it is no secret that secessionist movements do not consider themselves as Ethiopians and nor do they believe in the very existence of the Ethiopian nation. They do what ever they can to undermine and distort the name and place of Ethiopia. Whenever they mention Ethiopia, they only talk of the ‘Empire Ethiopia’ or the ‘invention’ of Ethiopia or the ‘coloniser’ Ethiopia. Judging against this background, unlike to the secessionist forces, leaving aside the name Ethiopia in the AFD can not be in the best interest of Kinijit.

On the preamble of the AFD’s Statutes, it talks about Ethiopia and the region. What does Ethiopia and the region mean? Why is it necessary to include the word region? Does Ethiopia stand to represent the Amharas and Tigreans as usually referred as Abyssinian and sometime as Ethiopian while Oromia and Ogaden as regions in this context? It is not clear and it may be subjected to different and opposing interpretations depending on where one stands.

Third, AFD’s Statutes, Chapter III, Article 1 (2), reads: ‘The Alliance shall convene an inclusive conference to establish a workable arrangement on the basis of the present framework of the Ethiopian constitution.’ But, thanks to the instrumentality of TPLF’s Constitution, we find the legal basis for ethnic politics, bantustanisation of Ethiopia via ethnic enclaves and a recipe for future balkanisation of Ethiopia via the rights of ‘nations and nationalities’ to self-determination up to and including secession.

On the other hand, Kinijit’s Election Manifesto, 3.1, paragraph one, states: ‘The existing constitution has not been formulated in such a way as to be the frame-work in which the variety of interests, desires, attitudes are accommodated. Rather, it is so shaped to reflect the ideology, belief and political programme of a single party. It would therefore, be necessary to reform/amend it by freeing it from partisanship and transforming it into a document of long-term validity with which consecutive governments need not tamper…..’

This in effect means Kinijit is actually struggling to change the Constitution by mobilising the Ethiopian people behind it. In fact, Kinijit had promised to review around 19 Articles of the constitution if it could get a 2/3 vote in the Parliament. It is on this basis that the people voted for Kinijit and abandoning this election manifesto at a stroke of a pen by unelected KIL is nothing but a betrayal of the people’s trust.

Thus, TPLF’s Constitution which ‘is so shaped to reflect the ideology, belief and political programme of a single party’ is the very anti-thesis of Ethiopian unity and sovereignty. If we believe that Kinijit is a vanguard for a democratic and united Ethiopia, there can not be any sound justification for KIL to accept TPLF’s Constitution as the basic framework of the AFD against Kinijit’s Election Manifesto.

Fourth, AFD’s Statutes, Chapter III, Article 1 (8), reads: ‘The Alliance shall actively promote good relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea based on the agreement to be reached between the two sister countries.’

While Kinijit’s Election Manifesto (3.7, paragraph five) talks about neighbours in general, why single out Eritrea for this proposed good relationship with Ethiopia in the AFD document? Is it because AFD is solely created and financed by EPLF with a hidden agenda as believed by some Pan-Ethiopians? Is it because, all the other parties in the AFD other than Kinijit, are based, financed and controlled by EPLF? What is the exact nature of EPLF’s involvement with AFD and why? We need to have clear answers for the above questions so as to grasp the very essence of the AFD.

Let us leave aside the above probing questions for the moment and focus on the compatibility of AFD’s stand with that of Kinijit. Kinijit vehemently argues for Ethiopia’s natural, historical and legal rights to access to the sea (Kinijit’s Election Manifesto, 3.7, paragraph three). In unambiguous language, this claim is from Eritrea. If this is so, is it not obvious that Kinijit’s and EPLF’s interest would necessarily clash in this aspect? When one also takes into account the question of the legality of Eritrea’s separation from Ethiopia and the sympathy of Pan-Ethiopians with the plight of Ethiopian’s of Afar ethnicity who are forcibly denied their Ethiopian identity by the EPLF, there will always be a fundamental conflict of interest between the EPLF and Kinijit. How is AFD going to solve these inherent conflict of interests? Is it possible then for AFD to address these issues squarely and fairly if it is particularly created, based and financed by EPLF?

Fifth, AFD’s Statutes, Chapter V, Article 2, reads: ‘A political organisation with a proven track record of struggle, recognised leadership, political program and constituency which is deemed to be able and willing to fulfill the provisions of this statute may be invited or may itself submit application to become a member. Admission shall be based on the majority vote of the existing members.’

AFD’s Statutes, Chapter VI, Article 4 (d), reads: ‘Each member organisation shall be entitled to three representations on the Governing Council, and each representative shall be entitled to one vote. The head of a member organisation shall be one of the representatives on the Council.’

AFD’s Statutes, Chapter VI, Article 6, further reads: ‘Subject to the provisions of this Statute, all resolutions of the Governing Council shall require a two-thirds majority vote of the representatives.’

Of the five political parties which constituted AFD, OLF, ONLF and SLF are separatist movements. Moreover, it is a public knowledge that OLF, ONLF, SLF and EPPF are armed, financed, backed and supported by EPLF. They have no independent existence outside EPLF. As a party masterminding and bankrolling their activities, EPLF have a greater say and control on them. It will be very difficult for the above parties to act contrary to the interests of the EPLF. Then, it is clear to note that the only party with in AFD which is multi-ethnic and independent of the EPLF is Kinijit.

One can safely conclude from the above AFD articles that: EPLF controlled parties have 12 votes out of the 15 votes. Separatist movements have 9 votes out of the 15 votes. Kinijit has only 3 votes out of the total of 15 votes. Admission of new members and all resolutions of the Governing Council will require a two-thirds majority vote of the representatives. Hence, during voting, when the worst comes to the worst, because of their ideological similarities and their master’s (EPLF’s) influence, you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see the real possibility of OLF, ONLF, SLF and EPPF ganging-up against Kinijit and do whatever they like to frustrate Kinijit if they wish so. Unless Kinijit gets the blessing of the other four natural allies in the AFD and their master EPLF, how is it going to get a 2/3 majority to do anything? How did KIL fail to see this? What was KIL trying to achieve if it could not get a 2/3 majority? Above all, why a political party that had a majority vote in all regions in Ethiopia and supposed to be forming a government chose to become a minority partner in a club led by groups which only claim representing this or that ethnic group?

iii. Resuscitating ethnic politics?

During the May/05 election, the Ethiopian people have spoken their mind clearly. The people unambiguously reaffirmed their support for multi nationalism and rejected TPLF’s ethno-centric policy. What transpired during the election is that, it is not only TPLF that was defeated but also its long held ideology of divide and rule using ethnic politics. As a multi-ethnic party that transcends ethnic politics, Kinijit won most of the seats contested and outshined all the other parties including UEDF (a coalition of ethnic and multi national parties). In short, Kinijit’s election victory heralded the dawn of a new era; a new era and hope for multi-ethnic Ethiopian nationalism; a new era of Pan-Ethiopianism!

Kinijit believes in Liberal Democracy that gives primacy to individual rights over and above the rights of nations and nationalities which in turn is a group-based right. Kinijit’s Election Manifesto, 3.1, paragraph one reads: ‘…..In all respects, individual freedom would be given the leading place as it is the dearest value of humanity.’ In simple language, as far as Kinijit is concerned, it essentially perceives Ethiopia’s chronic problem as poverty, lack of democracy, the rule of law, respect for Human Rights, etc. The question of nations and nationalities is still perceived as a problem but a problem that will be resolved when the problem of individual rights is resolved. That is why Kinijit firmly believes that ethnic politics can not solve Ethiopia’s many and various problems. This is the stand of the Kinijit that the Ethiopian people cherished, respected and elected.

By the same token, one thing the May/05 election made absolutely clear was that ethnic- based parties like TPLF, OPDO, APDM and SEPDM and their ethnic politics were rejected by the people. In fact, by extension, it was also a defeat of the policies of OLF and ONLF. In simple terms, OLF and ONLF were marginalised almost to the extent of being redundant by Kinijit and UEDF. During and after the election, have any of you heard about OLF and ONLF recognizing the vote and will of the people? Absolutely not! In fact, until Kinijit leaders were arrested, the press releases issued by OLF were condemning the victory of the Ethiopian people as the coming back of a “Neo-Neftegna” force.

So what has changed for AFD to claim custodianship of Kinijit? I believe, separatist forces were simply forced to passively observe while the Ethiopian electorates were making history. Put simply, the election proved, the forces of unity have won decisively over separatist movements. Make no mistake that the likes of OLF were shocked of being left out of the popular movement since Kinijit and UEDF won seats even at the very heart of OLF’s base and strong hold which is Wollega; not to mention other parts of Ethiopia. Thus, separatist movements have to somehow halt this dynamism before ethnic-based politics eventually becomes a thing of the past!

Regrettably, rather than keeping and building on the election momentum and respecting the will of the people with regard to the role of ethnic-based ideology in Ethiopia, KIL vis-à-vis AFD has arguably brought, yet again, ethnicity and ethnic-based politics to the forefront. In light of the central and decisive role of the separatist movements in the AFD, forming the Alliance might have been tantamount to giving a new lease of life for ethnicity or being instrumental in reintroducing ethnic-based politics through the back door. Above all, it is a betrayal of the trust of the Ethiopia people who voted for unity, equality and democracy. Against all logic, it was heartbreaking to note some of the arch supporters of KIL lauding AFD as the union of Amharas and Oromos by effectively reducing Kinijit to that of an Amhara party and elevating OLF as the sole representative of the Oromo people.

The question we need to ask ourselves then is that: did KIL and its arch proponents recklessly end up giving a new lease of life for OLF and all other ethnic-based parties including the TPLF through the instrumentality of AFD? Is it true to say that while Kinijit and to some extent UEDF succeeded in effectively relegating ethnicity and ethnic-based politics to almost redundancy, AFD is sort of re-introducing ethnicity and ethnic politics to the forefront via the back door? It seems to me that, it is exactly the case so long as the secessionist forces are on the driving seats of AFD.

iv. Competency of KIL to negotiate on behalf of Kinijit in AFD:

In addition to the basic flaws of AFD documents, the hard-won May/05 election victories and the campaign to release the detained Kinijit leaders were at best mariginalised and at worst completely ignored. Ignoring the hard-won May/05 election victories and the detained leaders were tantamount to ignoring the Ethiopian electorate. It just can not be right to throw away the people’s hard won victories. As to why the KIL delegate, led by Shaleqa Yosef, failed to notice all these and accepted a marginal role in the AFD is a mystery. If missing all these is not pure incompetence on the part of KIL, I do not know what better describes political incompetence!!

v. History repeating itself?

It has been quite a while since Ethiopian politics has started being led not by a clear vision but by a short-term maxim of ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’. Those students who hated the Emperor rule had to fall in love with Eritrean secessionist movements to work hard to become an instrument of Ato Isayas Afeworki. The same goes to those who hated Colonel Mengistu. Rather than standing for unity and democratic rights of all Ethiopians, they had to submit to EPLF’s will and barter Ethiopian territorial integrity for ascending to power.

Now history seems repeating itself in front of our eyes. All the people who hated the TPLF/EPRDF government overnight claim to fall in love with EPLF, OLF, ONLF and even with an extreme fundamentalist force in Somalia. The tragedy is that even the media has to do a U turn on the question of Ethiopian unity to serve as an instrument for its breakup.

It is heartbreaking to see the likes of Ethiomedia and Addis Voice, the two popular pro-unity websites, ending up being the voice of OLF and ONLF after the formation of AFD. Now every ONLF and OLF press releases and meetings are getting prime coverage on these websites. The defection and the subsequent joining of the army to OLF is proudly reported by the Websites. You can also get OLF’s links on the websites. I really doubt if they have seen the long term implications of their actions on Ethiopian unity. What concessions have we got from OLF and ONLF to warrant doing all these? I can not see any.

vi. Conclusion:

Generally speaking, it is suffice to say the terms and conditions of AFD were not in line with Kinijit’s election manifesto and the people’s desire who voted for it. If people were interested in ethnic politics, they could have easily voted for OPDO, TPLF, APDM and others. The AFD agreement neither recognizes the victory achieved by Kinijit nor show any respect for the people’s right to choose. In short, it was pure incompetence on the part of KIL in failing to see AFD’s basic flaws as argued above and accept a marginal role in the AFD. KIL should have also argued for the hard-won May/05 election victory and the campaign to release the detained Kinijit leaders to have a very central-place in the AFD.

On the other hand, OLF effectively outwitted KIL by using the instrumentality of AFD to put ethnic politics to the forefront to the detriment of multi national politics. Thanks to AFD, some of the notable pro-unity websites also ended up being a mouthpiece for secessionist forces. Most annoying of all is that, as explained by Mrs Birtukan Mideksa, Kinijit-Ethiopia was/is not part of AFD and it is the UNELECTED KIL who took it to AFD. Above all, except making many pan-Ethiopians a fan of OLF, I submit, AFD achieved or delivered nothing. It was a failed project from the start. By the way, was the intention of those who masterminded AFD to relegate Kinijit to a junior partner and making ethnic-based political parties the center of attention?

Related articles:
1. The Rise and debacle of Kinijit, critical appraisal (Part One)
2. The Rise and debacle of Kinijit, critical appraisal (Part Two)
3. The Rise and debacle of Kinijit, critical appraisal (Part Three)